Dutching in football – how to save your money using this strategy. A trick for using overvalued odds – please read below to learn more.
A bit of theory
Dutching is a sports betting strategy when, after choosing an event, you bet only on the most likely outcomes instead of all, excluding betting on outcomes with low probability. Note that the odds you bet on must form an arbitrage.
In this article, we will not go into the basic knowledge of arbitrage betting. If you do not know what it is, read this article first: examples of arbitrage: calculator, formulas.
Important: no one will tell you this, especially bookmakers, but do not be surprised if you lose money eventually after using dutching. After all, the outcome you ignore can still occur with probability
100/Bookmaker Odds %
At best, you will get nothing, but in fact you will lose money.
So now you ask, what to do, the strategy seems inefficient?
How to use a dutching strategy. A way to gain profit
This is not quite true, dutching can be profitable if you take into account one thing. It will be discussed further.
You need to find overvalued events for dutching.
For example: a group stage match of the UEFA European Championship to qualify for the knockout stage, and a draw kills the chances for both teams, and both teams play attacking football. Accordingly, the probability of a draw in this game is quite low (which means high odds). But the bookmaker offers low odds. In this case, it can be assumed that the bookie overestimated a draw by offering low odds. On the premise that the total probability of all outcomes is 100% (in fact, of course, slightly less, because there is still a margin), we conclude that the other outcomes are undervalued (i.e. they have higher odds) and by placing bets on such odds, we will gain profit in the long term.
That is, dutching calculations can be considered as opposite to value betting, because here we are looking for overvalued outcomes to avoid betting on them.
Talking about dutching software, sometimes it is easier to find these arbs using any arbitrage scanner, because if there is an arb, some outcome is overvalued. You just need to analyze which one and avoid betting on it.
Necessary presence of an arbitrage can be proved mathematically
- P3 — probability of the 3 outcome (values 0 to 1)
- O1, O2 — odds for the 1 and 2 outcome
- M — money per an arb
Using the formula, you can calculate the approximate profit:
Profit = M*(1-P3)*(1/( 1/O1+1/O2 )-1)-P3*M
Thus, we need
M*(1-P3)*(1/( 1/O1+1/O2 )-1)-P3*M = Profit > 0
Conversion of the formula, by moving the terms of the equation to another part, will help us see that the profit will be greater than 0, only if this condition is met:
1/O1+1/O2 +P3 < 1
And this means an arbitrage must occur.
Question: Why do we need dutching, if we can use arbitrage betting?
Answer: Dutching offers a higher income, because you do not lose money on one of the outcomes, but it is more risky.
Dutching in football on correct score
Dutching is often used for betting on the correct score.
Example: Arsenal-Sunderland, after analyzing the event, we understand that few goals will be scored in this game (weather, injuries of the main goal scorers) and the obvious favorite is Arsenal. After choosing the best odds at different bookmakers, we bet on the correct score of the match for the outcomes: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0, 1-1. Before this, be sure to check that there is an arbitrage (dutching, in our case) for these outcomes.
Why at different bookmakers? This increases our chances of catching the undervalued odds.
Dutching involves an interesting approach called ‘odd difference’ with the following outcomes:
- ‘odd’ total goal
We want the match to end with any of the scores: 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:1, 1:2, 2:2, etc. Our tactics will fail if the match ends with a score of 2:0; 0:2; 3:1; 1:3; 4:0; 0:4; 4:2; 2:4.
The weakest point is 2:0 and 0:2. If you want, you can back up by betting on the ‘correct score’.
Choose desired outcomes
The total amount of the bet is $100. If you confine yourself to two outcomes, then by using a surebet calculator 2 way, you can calculate the necessary rates and the expected profit.
(by this link you can find other arbitrage calculator, you can use them as dutching calculator for 2, 3, 4 and 5 way)
If you include the score 0:2 (3 outcome) in the possible outcomes,
the following picture emerges
As we see, the profit fell more than 2 times, this is the price for the backup. The real score of the match was 1:2, so we won due to one goal only, otherwise we would lose…