According to the financial ‘Fixed Profit’ betting strategy, players must first determine the amount of profit they want to receive. The amount is calculated with the simple formula:
A = P/(O — 1)
O — the odds for the bet,
P — the fixed profit,
A — the bet amount.
Football match: Spartak — CSKA
Spartak to Win — 2.2 CSKA to win — 3.6
Let’s assume, you want to bet on the win of Spartak and get a $100 profit. In this case, the bet amount must be:
A = 100/(2.2-1) = 100/1.2 = $83.3
So, to get 100-dollar profit, your bet amount must be 83.3 dollars.
Suppose, another player bets on CSKA aiming to receive the same profit of 100 dollars. Their bet amount must then be:
A = 100/(3.6 – 1) = 100/2.6 = $38.46
Typically, the bet amount varies depending on the odds. For less probable events, the bet amount will be less, which is logical, since you would want to preserve the bankroll.
If you compare fixed profit betting with flat betting, in the latter you fix the bet amount ‘at the inlet’, while here you fix the profit ‘at the outlet’.
There are two things to consider in fixed profit betting:
- The fixed profit amount should depend on the amount of your bankroll. It is thought to be relatively safe to determine the amount of fixed profit as 3-5% of the bankroll.
- It is believed that there is no need to always strictly determine the fixed profit amount — it may vary depending on how probable the event is (or what the odds are).
For instance, you can determine the base profit amount for odds from 1.9 to 2.1 as 100 dollars. For higher odds, the profit amount would decrease and for lower odds, it would increase. The same dependence is true for the percentage of the bankroll and the profit amount.
In my opinion, this additional point of the bet amount (calculated with the above formula) going down as the odds go up, only strengthens the idea of the strategy.
The fixed profit strategy is not a popular one. Its advantage is that, by weighing the amount of desired profit against the expenses it entails, bettors can make right judgements about the risks associated with this or that betting event.